Barstool’s Unofficially Non-Sanctioned Copa America Preview & Betting Guide
Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies – Comprehensive Copa America Centenario Preview
Hi haters,
It’s me, your boy-and-or-mortal-enemy Sam. Some of you may remember me from the 2014 World Cup. Others may recall me from the Gold Cup or Women’s World Cup last summer. And a couple of you may even remember me as the dumbass writing a voluminous quantity of tl;dr soccer posts – mostly but not exclusively on EPL and Champions League – for what is/was (had been?) a decidedly anti-soccer audience.
For those of you who don’t fit into any of those categories and are instead new to these blogs and/or even this fun little sport we call soccer: WELCOME!
“Yippy, I love soccer!”
Congratulations, you are going to enjoy the hell out of the next month and half.
“Ugh, I hate soccer!”
First off, I’m sorry your mother didn’t give you enough attention as a child. That must be hard for you. But the good news is that even if you don’t like soccer, you may still enjoy the hell out of the next month and a half.
“Huh? Why?”
Well, because starting this Friday there are going to be ball games / moneymaking opportunities galore every night – and starting a week from Friday every afternoon as well – thanks to Copa America and Euro 2016 tournaments, respectively. And what better way to use the time that society says you should spend working and/or doing something else “productive” than by sitting your happy-ass in front of a TV and enjoying some testicle-tingling soccer action… besides, who needs a job when you and I will be busy printing bejamins while riding that MoneyTrain®.
Choo Chooooooooooo
WARNING: Yes, this preview is rather long and involves a couple multi-syllabic words, however, it is intended to have a little something for everybody. Read what you want, skip what you don’t… or head directly on down to the comments to let the world know just how much you hate soccer and the fairies that play it because they bang all the hot girls you touch yourself thinking about. For those with fully functioning brains, here’s what is contained in the blog:
• General lay of the land for anybody wanting to know something about each (or at least some) of the teams? Yep.
• A brief list of players worth watching so you can impress all the ladies at the bar with your deep knowledge of jogo bonito? No doubt.
• Predictions and betting tips to make you filthy rich? Of course.
• Live updates on the whereabouts and status of Johnny Manziel? Fuck and no.
So without further ado let’s move right along to meat of this soccer blog sandwich…
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COPA AMERICA CENTENARIO
For those who need a little refresher on what the Copa actually is, it is a competition held every few years as a means for determining the best country in and/or around SOUTH AMERICA. Traditionally it involves 12-teams, including 10 from CONMEBOL (South America) and two – usually but not always – coming from CONCACAF (North America).
At least you tried, wolfmansbro
This being the 100th anniversary (“Centenario”) edition, the tournament directors decided out of the goodness of their heart and undying love of money to spice things up by holding it in the world’s most commercially lucrative market of Los Estados Unidos – that’s Arabic for “Land of the Great White Satan” for the strictly-English-speakers in our midst – and opening it up to a slightly larger field of 16 countries, including six from CONCACAF (USA, Costa Rica, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama and Mexico).
The first game kicks off on TOMORROW (June 3) – hosts USMNT vs Colombia – and the competition will run for three and a half weeks up until June 26. There will be games played at stadiums throughout the country, and if Big Cat and I get off our lazy asses we might even put together a watch party at some point.
Taking into consideration various injuries and other absences due to various commitments like the Olympics (Brazil is hosting), which will affect some countries more than others and shall be discussed in more detail below…
Better at selfies than hitting the curve… or fastball… or t-ball
…here are the up-to-date betting odds for the 16 nations involved in this summer’s New World Soccer Championship:
I’ll offer some off the cuff predictions for how the tournament might play out at the end, though first let’s break down the four groups…
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GROUP A
USA (Odds to win group: 5/4)
FIFA World Ranking: 29
Player to watch: Bobby Wood – Jozy Altidore did everybody a favor and got his traditional hamstring injury out of the way before the tournament got underway, meaning Wood – fresh off a huge season for Union Berlin in Germany – was able to benefit from plenty of playing time in tune-up matches alongside Clint Dempsey, who has lost a step but at least has the vision to help feed Wood. The USA should get some offensive production from guys like Gyasi Zardes, Darlington Nagbe and Christian Pulisic, but to do some damage in the tournament it is time for Wood to step up and produce. [Honorable mentions go to Nagbe, who could make the tourney a coming out party of sorts for European club scouts, and John Brooks, who Klinsmann appears married to slotting next to Geoff Cameron and will need to be a godamn rock for us to do anything.]
COLOMBIA (3/2)
FIFA World Ranking: 4
Player to watch: James Rodriguez – he was too busy slaying Spanish mamacitas all season to do much on the field for Real Madrid (can you blame him?), but with aging talents like Radamel Falcao and Jackson Martinez left at home it is up to James to recapture his World Cup 2014 form… and don’t let the FIFA ranking fool you, he may have to do so just to ensure that Colombia doesn’t crash out at the group stage.
COSTA RICA (5/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 25
Player to watch: Keylor Navas Joel Campbell – with the Real Madrid keeper on the shelf through injury, the Ticos will need the Arsenal man to step up big time. The stage is unlikely to be too big for him, but I’m not sure the same will go for his supporting cast.
PARAGUAY (10/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 39
Player to watch: Juan Iturbe – some of you might recognize him from his loan spell with Bournemouth (from Roma) this season… buttttttttttttttt a lot of you may not because after Iturbe’s big money move in January he started a grand total of zero – as in less than ONE – league games. Ouch. Funny what a little motivation can do though and there can be no doubt that Iturbe – a member of the semi-distinguished “once labeled the next Messi” club – will want to impress at Copa in order to pave the way for a new contract and likely club next fall. [Note: when Paraguay can be considered the group’s strawman, you know this is a tough foursome.]
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SCHEDULE
Friday, June 3: USA vs. Colombia, 8:30pm CT, FS1
Saturday, June 4: Costa Rica vs. Paraguay, 4pm CT, FOX
Tuesday, June 7: USA vs. Costa Rica, 7pm CT, FS1
Tuesday, June 7: Colombia vs. Paraguay, 9:30pm CT, FS1
Saturday, June 11: USA vs. Paraguay, 6pm CT, FS1
Saturday, June 11: Colombia vs. Costa Rica, 8pm CT, FS2
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP A WINNER: USA
Too big. Too strong. Too fast. And for perhaps the first time ever in an international competition too talented. This year’s Copa should be the inflection point for which Americans have been DYING. I’ve seen silly ass “experts” on websites like ESPN picking the US to finish fourth – aka last – in the group
but a) those individuals should be investigated for being ISIS-sympathizers, b) they are looking too far into friendlies and even recent qualifiers in which Jurgen was Klinsmanning (ie, experimenting with nonsensical line-ups), and c) they are either discounting or blind to how talented the USMNT is coming into this tournament. Could we fall on our faces? Sure, wouldn’t be the first time. But this team is legitimately good and playing on home soil, which is a formidable combination. Add to that my sense that we are catching a very talented Colombia team at an awkward time (for them) where the new faces have not yet gelled, plus the fact that Costa Rica is overrated and still coasting on the fumes of their surprisingly strong showing (aided by weak scheduling) at WC14 and you get…
GROUP A RUNNER-UP: Paraguay
As much as I hate their unwieldy and uncreative nickname (Los Guaraníes La Albirroja), do not count this team out. They are basically Atletico Madrid minus Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann. Okay, bad example. But while they do come in as the longshots of the group, they can be as tough defensively as anybody in the tournament, which could be enough to give Colombia and/or Costa Rica some unexpected problems.
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GROUP B
BRAZIL (Odds to win group: 2/7)
FIFA World Ranking: 7
Player to watch: Neymar Douglas Costa Willian – while other favorites like Argentina and Uruguay may be without some top choice players because of injuries, Brazil’s non-Zika health issues are compounded by simultaneously hosting the Olympics, forcing the country to insist upon guys like Neymar staying home and helping it go for the gold. Willian, on the other hand, was one of the very few Chelsea players to show up this season and no reason to think his speed and tenacity won’t prove at least as influential in the Copa. [Honorable mentions: Hulk will get a lot of hype but watch out for Benfica striker Jonas, who is good enough that he should have made the initial cut but instead had to wait to for a borderline-pity invite due to injuries. Dunga may have lucked out BIG TIME on that one.]
ECUADOR (4/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 12
Player to watch: Antonio Valencia – the wing midfielder has always been a little bit better for country than club (Manchester United), and his absence against the USMNT last week was noticeable.
PERU (8/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 46
Player to watch: Paolo Guerrero – the striker plays for Flamengo in Brazil and is one of the few recognizable names left now that aging veterans like Claudio Pizarro, Jefferson Farfan and Juan Manuel Vargas got Landon Donovan-ed by the coach. Don’t sleep on Peru though, especially if Ecuador end up being as offensively inept as they looked against the USMNT last week.
HAITI (66/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 71
Player to watch: Duckens Nazon – how do you not pay attention to a dude name named after John Madden’s Frankensteined bird dish from which he would hand out legs/cancer sticks to the grittiest players after Thanksgiving Day (real) football games? You can’t.
Anyway, the whole team is young, with a strangely large number of players plying their trade in the NASL, but despite their over-achievement at last summer’s Gold Cup you have my official permission to sleep Haiti this time around. Good learning experience, likely little more.
SCHEDULE
Saturday, June 4: Haiti vs. Peru, 6:30pm CT, FS2
Saturday, June 4: Brazil vs. Ecuador, 9pm CT, FS1
Wednesday, June 8: Brazil vs. Haiti, 6:30pm CT, FS1
Wednesday, June 8: Ecuador vs. Peru, 9pm CT, FS2
Sunday, June 12: Ecuador vs. Haiti, 5:30pm CT, FS2
Sunday, June 12: Brazil vs. Peru, 7:30pm CT, FS1
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP B WINNER: BRAZIL
I am NOT a huge fan of the squad that Dunga is bringing with him to this tournament, but Brazil could grab 11 homeless guys off a favela street corner and earn a FIFA world ranking in the mid-30s, so saying a Brazil squad sucks is kinda like saying the last chick Leonardo De Caprio slipped it to was ugly compared to some of his conquests. Point being, everything is relative. Add to that the fact the Jogo Bonito Boys appear to be a beneficiary of what could be the easiest of the four groups, and there you have it.
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GROUP B RUNNER-UP: Ecuador
It’s bound to be a dogfight between Ecuador and Peru to finish in the second slot and advance to the knockouts, with the winner potentially being the team that is more willing to ignore all human decency while whooping up on Haiti, thus ensuring they win the first tiebreaker (goal differential). For that reason and that reason alone I am going with La Tricolor, who has a higher ceiling offensively.
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GROUP C
URUGUAY (Odds to win group: 1/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 9
Player to watch: Edinson Cavani – with Luis Suarez’s health in doubt it will be on Cavani’s shoulders to carry the water for Uruguay up top, at least until Bitey’s return.
MEXICO (5/4)
FIFA World Ranking: 16
Player to watch: Javier Hernandez – I’d like to direct your attention somewhere else but there is no denying how well Chicarito played in Germany for Bayer this season. He’s in the prime of his career and this is the type of tournament where he could really make his mark if he can drive a deep run for El Tri.
VENEZUELA (10/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 74
Player to watch: Adalberto Penaranda – lots of people will point to Salomon Rondon, and it’s true that the West Brom striker needs to come up youuuuuge if La Vinotinto [note: bonus points if you studied abroad in Sevilla and are as confused as me about why the country would want to nickname their national team after a Fanta + red wine drink] don’t wanna go the way of Hugo Chavez, but watch out for Penaranda. The winger’s rights are owned by Watford but he played for Granada in Spain last season who he helped survive to fight for another go round in La Liga.
JAMAICA (16/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 55
Player to watch: Wes Morgan – fresh off a dream season for Leicester, Copa America is likely to be a harsh dose of reality for Morgan as he is suddenly not surrounded by the likes of Riyad Mahrez, N’Golo Kante and company. In fact, “Captain Morgan” may already be looking forward to next fall by this time next week if they end up getting smoked in their only potentially winnable game in the group opener versus Venezuela.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, June 5: Jamaica vs. Venezuela, 4pm CT, FOX
Sunday, June 5: Mexico vs. Uruguay, 7pm CT, FS1
Thursday, June 9: Uruguay vs. Venezuela, 6:30pm CT, FS1
Thursday, June 9: Mexico vs. Jamaica, 9pm CT, FS1
Monday, June 13: Mexico vs. Venezuela, 7pm CT, FS1
Monday, June 13: Uruguay vs. Jamaica, 9pm CT, FS1
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP C WINNER: MEXICO
Could be a big tournament for CONCACAF, which has never had a team win a Copa America (El Tri has finished runners-up twice), if Mexico and their more accomplished neighbors to the north each finish on top of their respective groups. Mexico comes into the tournament playing well, including a recent 1-0 friendly win over Chile, and will be the beneficiary of the type of partisan, piss-bag throwing, “putoooooo” chanting crowds that the USMNT will be hard-pressed to match in our own backyard. Assuming Suarez is forced to sit out at least one group game, this will also play into Mexico’s hands as the two teams are scheduled to play one another first.
GROUP C RUNNER-UP: Uruguay
Venezuela is not going to be an easy out, and Uruguay strikes a club that is could be ripe for an early crash-out…. but in the end I couldn’t pull the trigger. It may take longer than expected, but hard to imagine the quality of La Celeste not eventually rising to the top. Suarez was playing as well as anybody in the world before he got hurt, so IF he comes back and IF he is healthy, that could change everything. Those are all big question marks at the moment though.
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GROUP D
ARGENTINA (Odds to win group: 8/15)
FIFA World Ranking: 1
Player to watch: Gonthalo Higuain – yeah, yeah, yeah. Messi, Messi, Messi. The little maestro is going to do some ridiculous things and I’m gonna pop a bunch of twitter boners, but that’s just a given at this point. Messi does unspeakably dirty things to opposing defenders and Argentina loses in the championship. That has been La Albiceleste’s calling card these last couple years. It’s time for Higuain to finally do something other than sky shots over the crossbar while wearing a jersey with white and baby blue vertical stripes. Lord knows he ain’t got an excuse after scoring 38 goals for Napoli this season, especially with opposing defenses spending so much time and energy trying to stop the likes of Messi and Sergio Aguero.
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CHILE (7/4)
FIFA World Ranking: 3
Player to watch: Arturo Vidal – when not crashing Ferrari’s while driving drunk after celebrating a group stage game in Copa America (happy anniversary, Arturo!)
Vidal is the heart and soul of this team, and will need to come up as big as he did in last summer’s Copa when he both clogged up the midfield against the Uruguay’s and Argentina’s while also finishing tied for third (with Sergio Aguero) in scoring in the competition. [Honorable mention to Lexi Sanchez, whose love for hot-rolling soccer shorts puts him in a league of his own.]
PANAMA (20/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 52
Player to watch: Ismael Diaz – the Porto striker (though he played primarily for the B team) is the club’s only player in Europe so when things get tough, and chances are they will in a group where Chile is the second best team, his teammates are going to look to him to do something special. [Note: neither here nor there but when a 19-year-old is your go-to, you are in a spot of bother.]
BOLIVIA (33/1)
FIFA World Ranking: 79
Player to watch: Simón Bolívar – losing 4-0 to a USMNT squad playing with four centerbacks at once means (a) La Verde officially lost its man card and (b) they might as well spend some time doing something productive like Wikipedia-ing Bolívar since this whole “soccer thing” doesn’t seem to be working out so well.
SCHEDULE
Monday, June 6: Panama vs. Bolivia, 6pm CT, FS1
Monday, June 6: Argentina vs. Chile, 9pm CT, FS1
Friday, June 10: Chile vs. Bolivia, 6pm CT, FOX
Friday, June 10: Argentina vs. Panama, 8:30pm CT, FOX
Tuesday, June 14: Chile vs. Panama, 7pm CT, FS1
Tuesday, June 14: Argentina vs. Bolivia, 9pm CT, FS1
***
~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP D WINNER: ARGENTINA
Messi will be fresh off a court case back in Spain and in fact will be joining Argentina late, which could be a bit of an issue, but the roster is stacked from top to bottom with talent so as much as I hate picking chalk, it’d tough not to back the lead horse in this puppy.
GROUP D RUNNER-UP: Chile
Another pretty boring pick but I suspect the stage may be a little too big for Panama and Bolivia is playing like poop-flavored poop, so yeah, I’m going with Chile.
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RIDICULOUSLY SPECULATIVE KO ROUND BRACKET
Below, I took my picks above for the first- and second-place, put them in a bracket and took a crack at filling it out. I’ll be honest, I kiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiind of hate how it turned out. First and foremost, Brazil just isn’t that good. However, they very well may benefit not only from being placed in the tournament’s weakest group, but the Seleção could also luck into an ideal quarterfinal draw against Paraguay. Should we expect anything less from a country where (I’ve heard) every girl wears nothing but bikinis and competes in BumBum Contests?
Among the other tough choices, a smarter person than me would probably pick Mexico (or perhaps even Chile) to beat Brazil based on their respective strengths and weaknesses… but, alas, be it through prescience or odium, I just couldn’t pull the trigger.
As for Argentina, I am not a fan of going with the favorites, but looking at their roster and taking into consideration how close they have come the past two summers in the World Cup (losing final after extra time) and Copa America Non-Centenario (losing final in PKs), I can’t help but think they have the talent and the motivation to end up lifting the trophy. I would apologize but my job is to make the right picks not the sexy ones, so you’re welcome.
So there we have it. I’m going with the above (speculative) bracket for the time being, though I obviously may/will be forced to re-visit this once the group stage has wrapped up and the knockout matchups are set.
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Friendly reminder: the EURO 2016 tourney – aka the World Cup of Europe – begins a week from Friday so stay tuned for a preview next week.
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for the next month and a half of soccer
Holler,
Sam U.L. Army