Barstool’s Unofficially Non-Sanctioned EURO 2016 Preview & Betting Guide
Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies – Comprehensive EURO 2016 Preview
Hi haters,
It’s me again! This time I’m back with way too many words about a different soccer competition that some of you may not know all that much about, but you probably should because it is fantastically awesome – and this time it takes place on the other side of the pond, which is neither here nor there except for the fact that for the next couple of weeks we will be able to avoid work and watch soccer every afternoon AND evening thanks to the EURO 2016 and Copa America tournaments, respectively. If that’s not something you can get excited about then you should definitely stop reading and go back to reminding yourself to breath every few seconds.
For those of you who don’t know what the EURO 2016 tournament is, here’s the quick and dirty explanation: it’s the World Cup of Europe. Boom. Easy peasy. Now we’re all caught up.
“But wait, there are so many different cups and tournaments and competitions. Does this one actually matter?”
Hellllllllllllllllllll yes it matters. Countries will be playing their best players who will be going all out, and it will be spectacular.
“Am I going to have to find a sketchy Russian website that will give my computer internet herpes in order to watch the games?”
Nnnnnnnnnnnope, our good friends at ESPN will be showing every game live and in technicolor on both television and online.
“What’s this feeling in my pants?”
That’s a sports boner. Don’t worry, it’s natural. In fact get used to it, there’s going to be a lot of those over the next month or so.
Before we go any further, I’ll include the usual warning for anybody with the attention span of a field mouse and/or an aversion to words: Yes, this preview is long. In fact, it has just been judged to be the single longest blog in Barstool Sports history. (By me.) However, there’s a reason for that. It is intended to have a little something for everybody. Read what you want, skip what you don’t. Or just look at the pictures and leave a comment questioning my sexuality. Up to you. It’s really not that hard. All are welcome. This is your soccer space after all.
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Now before I forget, I’ll include one last link to the full and equally comprehensive Copa America Preview, to make sure you are up to speed on and not confused about the two distinct competitions taking place at the same time. Now let’s get back to getting our minds right for…
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UEFA EURO 2016
To make sure we are all on the same page here, there are some factoids you should probably know going in:
• Spain is the two-time defending champions of this tournament after having won the 2008 and 2012 editions.
• France is the host nation and, compounded by the fact the team is STACKED with talent, they are also the betting favorites to lift the trophy on July 10.
[Fun fact, while France has been the target of some recent terror activity, which will undoubtedly be a yuuuuuuuuuuuuuge concern for organizers and fans alike, the country won the vote to host the tournament in 2010 only narrowly beating out…. Turkey, which would have made the potential security concerns that France is facing look like child’s play. So, um, yay?]
• For the first time, the field has been expanded from its usual 16 teams (four groups) and will instead consist of 24 countries (six groups), because money.
The draw for those groups took place in December and the resulting lay of the land looks like this:
For those of you looking to put the games in your Palm Pilot calendar, here is a modified version of the combined schedule of all Copa America and EURO 2016 group stage games from Friday onwards (originally compiled by @amadoit_), though apologies in advance for my fellow Chicagoans as all the times are in Eastern Time:
As for the odds to win the damn thing, this is what we are looking at for the moment:
One of the “quirks” of the 24-team tournament is that a bunch of third place teams – four of them, to be precise – will advance from the group stage, which it makes it damn near impossible to offer up any predictions for how the knockouts will play out at this point. Instead, let’s just do what we can and focus on group winners and runners-up…
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GROUP A
France (FIFA ranking: 17th)
Great example of the uselessness of FIFA rankings. Team is loaded with studs. Hugo Lloris, Paul Pogba, Antoine Griezmann, Dimitri Payet, Blaise Matuidi, N’Golo Kante and Big Beak Giroud – just to name the first seven that came to mind. If there is a weakness it is on defense where the froggies will be missing Real’s Raphael Verane and Arsenal’s Laurent Koscielny has been anything but consistent of late. France will not only benefit from having home crowds on their side, but this is probably the weakest group of the bunch, meaning they should have a relative cakewalk to the knockouts.
BEST CASE: Champions
WORST CASE: Quarterfinals
Switzerland (FIFA ranking: 15th)
The Swiss are, per usual, a very solid squad front to back but lack the type of dynamic playmakers that usually emerge as difference makers in major tournaments. Arsenal fans should get their first good look at Granit Xhaka, who is the type of non-Minion midfielder for which they’ve been itching for years. From where are the goals going to come though?
BEST CASE: Quarterfinals
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Romania (FIFA Ranking: 22nd)
Undefeated in qualifying yet finished second in group behind Northern Ireland. What does that spell, children? DRAWS! Yay, exciting. When one of their better players is Vlad Keerrakesh, whose highlight at Tottenham (before getting shipped off) was nobody knowing how to say his name, that’s not a great sign. Defensively organized, offensively challenged. Midfielder Nicolae Stanciu of Steaua is one of the few Romanians capable of generating some excitement.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Albania (FIFA Ranking: 42nd)
Not to be confused with Austria/Bayern’s David Alaba, who is worth more in the transfer window than Albania’s entire country (not team – country), Albania scored a grand total of seven goals in qualifying (not counting a 3-0 win they were awarded against Serbia when the match was abandoned due to politics-related squabbling). The country is about the size of Juan Uribe’s dong, and about equally as likely to advance from the group stage.
BEST CASE: Score multiple goals
WORST CASE: Pull a USMNT-at-the-1998-World Cup… in France (ie, L-L-L with 1 goal scored)
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP A WINNER: FRANCE
RUNNER-UP: Switzerland
Notes: Romania could give the Swiss a run for second, but just don’t think they have enough firepower – which is saying quite a bit actually.
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GROUP B
England (FIFA ranking: 11th)
Attack, attack, attack. England has the players to make any game exciting, with Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Jamie Vardy and Hamstrings Sturridge up top, and guys like Dele Alli and Wayne Rooney feeding them the ball. Center back will be the squad’s weakness, with Chris Smalling and Gary Cahill “locking things down” in the back. I’m just going to say it though: I like this team. Good mix of youth and experience, and plenty of playmakers. At the end of the day they are England so a total flameout is ALWAYS possible, but they’ve definitely got boom or bust potential, and I’m leaning towards former.
BEST CASE: Champions (don’t @ me)
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Russia (FIFA Ranking: 22nd)
Two things to know about Russians this time around: you won’t know too many of them, and their balls are old and droopy. For one thing, the entire team (save for Schalke MF Roman Neustadter) plies their trade in the domestic motherland league. This can be a good thing since players will be familiar with one another, or not so good since that means they are not playing in La Liga’s, EPL’s or Serie A’s of the world. Also, the fact that the entire backline could be over the age of 30 is a badddddddddddddd, bad thing. Facts only: old dogs can’t learn new tricks or win international soccer tournaments.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Wales (FIFA ranking: 26th)
Gareth Bale. Gareth Bale, Gareth Bale, Gareth Bale. Some “experts” may try to point to other guys, but anybody who says somebody like Aaron Ramsey will be the key to how far Wales goes is a trying way, way too hard.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Slovakia (FIFA Ranking: 57th)
True story: one of Slovakia’s best players, Napoli midfielder Marek Hamsik, spends his offseason as a large-mouth bass.
Unfortunately this particular gill-bearing aquatic craniate animal is going to need to score (or at least assist on) a bunch of goals if Slovakia is going to do anything because their forwards ain’t scaring anybody.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP B WINNER: ENGLAND
RUNNER-UP: Wales
Notes: England are bound to keep things interesting, and if there is a favorite that most people will think is at risk of imploding its almost always the Three Lions. But past performance is a pretty shitty way of predicting future success given the roster overhauls in soccer. Is the team apt to do something silly like kick things off with an ugly draw against Russia? Absolutely, but I think they’ll eventually squeak through the group as the top seed before turning it on in the knockouts. Second place is very much up for grabs, though I think Gareth Wales will have jusssssst enough to grab the second slot.
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GROUP C
Germany (FIFA ranking: 4th)
Ze Germans have been uncharacteristically less-than-stellar lately, which I would posit is partially attributable to coach Joachim Loew’s loyalty in sticking with aging dinosaurs like Bastian Schweinsteiger as captain and key cog in the middle of Die Mannschaft’s midfield. That is likely to change come the big tourney where results actually matter, as the likes of Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and Sami Khedira will takes the reins. If there is a weakness it is the wing defenders, where the departure of Philipp Lahm means that guys like Emre Can will be the main attraction. Der gulp.
BEST CASE: Champions
WORST CASE: Quarterfinals
Ukraine (FIFA Ranking: 19th)
The Ukraine is not weak! Except they kinda are. Don’t let the FIFA Ranking fool you, the team has some serious attacking talent in Yehven Konoplyanka and Andriy Yarmolenko, but they are a top-heavy squad with an aging defense. Lots of boom or bust potential here, so if you’re looking for a true darkhorse this could be it. I’m not buying it though.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
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Northern Ireland (FIFA ranking: 25th)
Surprise package of qualifying, the Other Irish benefited from Greece’s soccer going the way of their economy. As much as West Brom fans may have thought Chris Brunt’s knee injury hurt them this season, his absence will be all the more apparent for country, where he led a no-nonsense – lottttttttttttttttttttta grit in this squad – defense. Chances are they play a 4-5-1 system, hoping to nick goals on the counter via Steven Davis or Paddy McNair.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Poland (FIFA Ranking: 27th)
The Poles will no doubt feel a little hard done by being stuck in with Germany YET AGAIN, but in truth this could be a manageable group. After all, Bayern’s Robert Lewandowski – he of the “12 goals in three minutes” performance (thereabouts) vs Wolfy this past season – is one of the world’s most deadly strikers.
Much like England, Poland has a knack for disappointing in big tourneys, but they have a solid spine that should provide Lewy with plenty of service.
BEST CASE: Quarterfinals
WORST CASE: Round of 16
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP C WINNER: GERMANY
RUNNER-UP: Poland
I mean, we’re talking about Germany here, and while they may be a little down at the moment from the team that cruised to World Cup glory in Brazil, they’re still Germany. This means that they had enough talent to tell Marco Reus, “Nahhhhhhh, no thanks, don’t need ya”. Any other country in the world (save for maybe Argentina) would be giving HJs in an alley to be in that kind of position. Second will be a dogfight, but I’m tipping Poland based on their well-distributed quality and, oh right, Lewandowski.
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GROUP D
Spain (FIFA ranking: 6th)
Haha, Spain has fallen to sixth in the rankings – how embarrassing, albeit nowhere near as humiliating as their performance at the last major tournament (2014 World Cup), of course.
In the time since though the squad has been rebooted, revamped and retooled – no Xavi, Xabi Alonso, Diego Costa, etc – and is on the upswing again. I tried to identify a weakness in the squad but everything I came up with was nit-picking, with the exception of the goalkeeping situation. It is unclear at this point whether Vicente Del Bosque sticks with Iker Casillas in net rather than turning to David De Gea, which 99.999999% of the world would call a no-brainer but is apparently still a question mark. Going with Casillas would be precisely the kind of poor personnel management that got the team in trouble heading into Brazil, so hopefully he makes the right choice.
BEST CASE: Champions
WORST CASE: Quarterfinals
Turkey (FIFA ranking: 18th)
This ain’t your daddy’s Turkey. A little like Spain, the country went through a (far less high profile) tough patch but has received a much-needed injection of youth. Thus, what they lack in experience they will try to make up for in speed and work rate. Very high risk, high reward team that could prove to be either a big surprise or not quite ready for primetime. Besiktas (and former Chelsea) winger Gokhan Tore is suspended for the first two games against Croatia and Spain, but once back will add a new dimension to Turkey’s attack that could make the team a horrible matchup for a tourney favorite in the knockouts.
BEST CASE: Quarterfinals
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Croatia (FIFA Ranking: 27th)
Croatia slipped into the field just ahead of Norway despite losing points because somebody emblazoned a Swastika onto their home playing field just before a qualifying match against Italy. (And yet Mexican fans still think FIFA is going to let them continue to chant “putoooooooooo” after goal kicks with any penalty… sure, amigos, surrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre.) Anyway, the team has talent, especially in midfield with the likes of Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, Ivan Rakitic, Mateo Kovacic and Ivan Perisic and – I mean, jesus christ switch it up with the names for me ONE TIME, Croatia – will dominate possession. Defensively though they are suspect outside of Dario Srna, which will likely prove to be their undoing in the knockouts.
BEST CASE: Semifinals
WORST CASE: Round of 16
Czech Republic (FIFA Ranking: 30th)
Call me a stupid Americano if you must, but I have a hard time distinguishing in my mind between countries like Czech Republic and Croatia (not to mention Serbia and Bosnia-Herz)… even though I know the former is not even that close geographically from the latter three. The team is solid and steady, kind like a slightly more Switzerlandy Poland, minus a defining force like Lewandowski but plus Petr Cech in the back.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP D WINNER: SPAIN
RUNNER-UP: Croatia
This to me is BY FAR the most difficult group of the bunch. For example, while I’ve got Czech Republic finishing in fourth, they have a much better shot at winning this group than any other potential cellar-dweller in the tournament. In the end, I’m going with Croatia to give Spain a run for their money but come up short as they have just enough holes that I couldn’t pull the trigger on putting them higher. Also, I have Croatia finishing ahead of Turkey in the group, but watch out for the Turks to make some noise in the knockouts (or Czechs if they find a way through).
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GROUP E
Belgium (FIFA ranking: 2nd)
Is this the tournament that Belgium FINALLY breaks through and fulfils their trophy-winning potential? It very well might be. The “Red Devils” have a ridiculous number of playmakers – Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, etc – and the tournament is being held in their neighbor’s backyard, so fan support is not going to be a problem. The only reason their odds are as long as they are is because they have for several tournaments running not quite lived up to the potential [people projected onto them, which has now led people to buy into the “they’re overhyped” talking point, but (as I said before the last World Cup) in my mind they weren’t quite ready to graduate from darkhorse to favorite. They have now taken that step. Watch out for Belgium. The only question is in the back where guys like Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen – one of if not the best center back duo in the EPL this season – have been played out of place as full backs to make way for guys like Thomas Vermaelen, who has touched a soccer ball about five times since the World Cup in Brazil. If that gets sorted, watch out.
BEST CASE: Champions
WORST CASE: Quarterfinals
Italy (FIFA ranking: 12th)
For all the talk of Italy being a shadow of its former self, the Azzurri finished on top of their group thanks to their traditional combination of organized play, shutdown defense and reliable goalkeeping. The big question, of course, is where will the goals come from? GIUSEPPE ROSSI AIN’T WALKING THROUGH THAT DOOR!
And neither is Claudio Marchisio, Marco Veratti or Sebastian Giovinco (for a number of reasons). One of the best reasons to suggest that Italy is not going to flame out is that every time you think the team is about to have a bad tournament they do something like go and win the 2006 World Cup. Translation: underestimate a Conte-led Italian team at your own peril…………….
BEST CASE: Quarterfinals (come at me, Italian bros)
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Sweden (FIFA Ranking: 35th)
The Swedes have a number of things in common with Wales, most notably the fact that they will go only as far their fearless leader can carry them. In this case it is The Zlatan, who despite being 34 years young is still reportedly on the verge of a trillion dollar contract offer from Manchester United. Sweden just won the U-21 Euros last year, suggesting that there is talent in the pipeline, but the problem is it has not yet arrived on the big boy stage yet. Much like Swedish Fish, this team is overrated.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Zlatan asks:
Sam answers:
Ireland (FIFA Ranking: 33rd)
Well god fricking damnit. My ancestral homelanders FINALLY qualify for an international competition and they get drawn in what a lot of pundits are calling the “group of death”. (For the record, Group C would get my vote.) There is really only one thing standing in between Ireland and doing some real damage in this tournament, and that is talent. Specifically, a lack of it. A team that starts Southampton’s Shane Long and Stoke’s Jon Walters as its marquee strikers is basically acknowledging “We won’t outplay you, but we might outwork you”… and that’s precisely what this team is going to try to do. It might very well work against a team with as many holes as Sweden, and perhaps on a blue moon against a relatively impotent Italian side, but Belgium is precisely the type of team that could mop the floor with my blood brethren.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP E WINNER: BELGIUM
RUNNER-UP: Ireland
Notes: The first matchups – Belgium vs Italy and Sweden vs Ireland – should tell us everything that we need to know about how this group is likely to play out. If Belgium hangs a crooker number on Italy, ruh roh Azzurri. If Ireland doesn’t beat Sweden, ruh roh Leprechauns.
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GROUP F
Portugal (FIFA ranking: 8th)
Of all 24 teams in the tournament, Portugal is the one that I have the most difficulty wrapping my head around. Yes, they have Cristiano Ronaldo, but do NOT confuse them with squads like Wales and Sweden that are dependent upon one player. The Portuguese side is deep, talented and experienced, full of players who were around for the semifinals run at EURO 2012. Watch out for Joao Mario, William Carvalho and especially Benfica’s Renato Sanches, who somebody is going to pay a pretty penny for sometime soon [update: Bayern just did]. On the other hand, the team has a profound capacity for mental midgetry, as displayed on many occasions by Ronaldo and especially everybody’s favorite Nintendo 64 Bad Guy Character, Pepe.
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So could they make a run? Yes. Could they crash out early? Also yes. Like I said, I can’t make up my mind on Portugal this time around, though with Ronaldo at the peak of his powers, I’ll say they have a better chance of making some noise (other than splat).
BEST CASE: Champions
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Austria (FIFA ranking: 15th)
After securing the second most points of any team in qualifying (just behind England), Austria think they are poised to finally do some damage in a big tournament. In fact, the team was in a similar position going into the 2014 World Cup until an injury to David Alaba took the wind out of their sails. If you are looking for a good team that is not among the usual coterie of traditional big-swinging dicks but that have an actual (albeit very outside) shot to win this puppy: Austria might be the team for you. They have an experienced-but-not-too-old defense, a formidable midfield with Arnautovic and Alaba) and a proven goal-scorer in Marc Janko up top. Kinda like a bigger, better, faster Switzerland.
BEST CASE: Champions
WORST CASE: Quarterfinals
Hungary (FIFA Ranking: 20th)
If Hungary is the 20th best team in the world, I’ve got a 20-inch dong. Nope. They were drawn into the weakest qualifying group and even then only managed to eke into the tournament after beating Norway in a playoff. Star-power is definitely not the team’s strength but don’t mistake Hungary for teams like Romania or Northern Ireland (or Iceland – see below) that are content to sit back and absorb pressure. The Hungarians can actually be an enjoyable side to watch, and not just because they are the only team in modern history with a goalkeeper who wears sweatpants.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
Iceland (FIFA Ranking: 34th)
Credit where credit is due, Iceland snagged the spot in the tournament that was supposed to go to the Netherlands, who finally paid the karmic price for Arjen Robben’s lifetime of diving. Iceland is led by my former Spurs boy Gylfi Sigurdsson, who has a great name and is an even better free-kick taker. The team is “tactical” (ie, defense-minded) and “methodical” (ie, dependent upon free kicks), though they will try to break out on the odd counter attack every so often.
BEST CASE: Round of 16
WORST CASE: Group stage exit
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~~PREDICCIONES~~
GROUP F WINNER: Austria
RUNNER-UP: Portugal
Notes: Classic haves versus have nots group, with Portugal and Austria playing the role of the Duke brothers from “Trading Places” while Iceland and Hungary being Dan Aykroid (late in the movie) and Eddie Murphy. The big difference is that this is soccer not Hollywood, where the rich get richer and the poor go home early.
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So there you ha