New York Rangers Off-Season State Of The Union
Stepan, Girardi, Klein, Raanta, Lindberg out. Shattenkirk, Desharnais, Pavelec (and possibly D’Angelo) in. It’s been quite a shakeup for the Blueshirts so far. They solidified the back end by finally getting McDonagh a worthwhile partner & kept Brendan Smith to slot next to Brady Skjei as he grows into an NHL stud. It’s an outstanding top-4 regardless of the “overrated” debate that surrounds Shattenkirk & allows AV to bury Staal on the third pair with either Holden or one of several kids (D’Angelo, Pionk, Bereglazov, Graves, Day) who all have significant potential. Any of D1-D4 could have career years as they’re all at or entering their primes. The question marks (besides Hank continuing to elude Father Time) are now found up front.
Is Derek Stepan 1C material? Probably not. Is $6.5M for the next 4 years too much to pay him? Probably. Still, Step was in the top-3 in team scoring annually and led the Rangers in SOG & PPP last season. While I’m not as concerned about the power play since Shatty comes in as the unquestioned QB there’s still a significant amount of offense that needs to be made up for. And while David Desharnais is a nice depth C with 3 seasons of 48+ points in the rearview, he’ll be relied on to fill Lindberg’s skates – not Stepan’s. At least half of NY’s 12 regular forwards are 25 or younger. Kreider is 26. There’s a lot of options to pick up the scoring slack. So who’s it gonna be?
WHO TO EXPECT MORE FROM
Mika Zibanejad – I really think Zib’s gonna be great. The Rangers haven’t had a center break 60 points since Brad Richard’s Broadway debut & DJ ZBad will be the next. He started hot last year before a broken leg & it took a while for him to get his wheels back. He then closed the regular season with 13 points in 17 games & led NY with 9 points in 12 playoff contests. There will soon be no question whether or not the Blueshirts have a true #1 C. Zib can do it all. If Gorton can lock him up long-term for something like $5.5M per, it’ll end up a bargain.
Rick Nash – Nash has missed 15+ games in 3 of 4 seasons. Since his 42-goal outburst in ’14-15, Nash has buried just 38 in 127 games. This is an interesting year though for the 33 year-old as the $62.4M contract he inked in 2009 after a career year comes to an end. There’s a lot of uncertainty awaiting Nash & I think that’ll motivate him to bounce back firing away for 30+ goals (assuming he’s slated alongside Zib on the top line which I expect).
Jimmy Vesey & Pavel Buchnevich – One of these kids is gonna get first dibs at top-6 minutes. Both can do the job, but if I had to guess it’ll be Buch with Nash & Zib. They had some success together last season & I think the Russian is clearly the more skilled offensive talent. No Ranger scored more even strength points per 60 than Buch in his rookie year. The best way to get the most of that is to slot him next to your 1C & a vet with 400+ goals. The big question is whether or not he can hang outside the offensive zone against opposing top lines.
Vesey can score in his own right but is more capable of playing a bottom-six role than Buchnevich. I thought after a rough mid-season stretch Vesey showed a lot of hustle & grit – especially in the playoffs. Did a lot of good things and I think his first off-season as a pro will have him much better prepared to ensure he stays out of AV’s doghouse & ready to step in for Buch if he struggles. Playing with Miller & either Desharnais or Grabner (depending on how the lines shake out) will provide plenty of advantageous matchups.
WHO TO EXPECT TO REPEAT
Mats Zuccarello – In 3 of 4 full seasons, Zucc has tallied 59, 61 & 59 points. Another 60-point campaign is in the cards.
Chris Kreider – Offensively, 30 goals/55 points is about what I’d say Kreider’s ceiling is. His physicality dropped off last season though & that’s what the Rangers need him to bring back.
Jesper Fast – He’ll start the year rehabbing from hip surgery, but once Jesper Fast is healthy he’ll continue to be one of the Rangers most reliable depth two-way players. Smart move by Gorton to give the kid a 3-year/$1.85M-per raise & buy out his first year as a UFA.
WHO I’M WORRIED ABOUT
Michael Grabner – I guess it’s not necessarily a “worry”, just don’t expect anywhere near 27 goals out of Grabs this go-around. 6 goals in his final 35 games is a more realistic expectation than the pace he set with 21 in his first 41. His speed is so disruptive though & if he gets a 3rd line slot with JT he’ll surely create some opportunities.
Kevin Hayes – I’m terrified. Kevin Hayes slated as 2C with no backup plan? I’m not all that concerned with his faceoff deficiencies as Stepan was no wizard – but which #13 is gonna show up? The only thing consistent about Hayes’ game is inconsistency. Just 3 assists in his last two postseasons & that’s when he wasn’t scratched. Disappeared post all-star break with a mere 14 points in 29 games. While his conditioning improved from 2 seasons ago, he’ll still never be mistaken for a workhorse. Is he going to be capable of even more ice time? Against opposing teams top-6? No one has more pressure than Hayes coming into 2017-18. With 3 full seasons under his belt, it’s time for the 25 year-old to toughen up & become a stable contributor instead of a “what if?” kid.
JT Miller – Kinda feel bad for JT. His entire Rangers career so far has been a wild ride. Never able to crack the lineup regularly, then in & out of the doghouse. Now, after a breakout season excelling on the wing, Miller may be asked to assume a full-time role up the middle. No matter what the kid does he’s always getting shuffled all over the place & that’s the variable that has me a little concerned about how Miller progresses. He’s at his best when he plays his power game. When he mistakes himself for Wayne Gretzky, that’s when he’s a problem. Slotting him at center opens him up to more of that. I’d rather him flanked on the wing but at the moment, the Blueshirts don’t have much of a choice.
While it may look on the surface like the Rangers simply shifted last year’s problem (defense) to a different position (center), there’s a significant difference. Last year they relied on guys in their 30’s with significant mileage (Girardi, Staal, Klein) to play like they have in the past. Backwards thinking. This season, they look to handle their problem up the middle with a 24 & 25 year-old at a position in their careers where they SHOULD begin to peak.
That’s not to say it’s a lock happen – but both Miller & Hayes have improved every year. I’m wary, sure, but I’d rather be wary of upside than empty gas tanks. Plus, Gorton’s had a stellar off-season that should leave NY with somewhere around $3M after Zibanejad signs. Between that, an unexpected surplus of young defensive prospects & all their future draft picks they’re in a good position to deal for help. The Blueshirts have pretty quickly transformed into a young team with promise – only one skater is inked after this season who will be over 30 (Staal turns 31 in January) – and a little flexibility to improve. Maybe that window isn’t as closed as people think.
