Ranking All 30 MLB Rotations, Part 3: The Middle Of The Pack
Check out part 1 (teams 30-25 here) and part 2 (teams 24-19 here) and don’t forget to join the conversation on twitter by following me Follow @SAlaskaBarstool
18. Texas Rangers – Will be much better when Darvish returns mid-season but, currently, it is Hamels and some scraps
Cole Hamels pitched unspectacularly last season but he can be counted on to perform in the future; he might not be a top 5 pitcher in the league anymore but he’s a sturdy #1. Yu Darvish missed all of 2015 with Tommy John and won’t return to the rotation until mid-summer. Darvish is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game when he is healthy and his eventual return should boost this middling rotation dramatically. Derek Holland has dealt with injuries to but his 3.42 ERA and 8k/9 when he was last fully healthy in 2013 indicates that he could be an asset in the middle of the rotation. Martin Perez has shown flashes (like his 26 straight scoreless innings and back-to-back shutouts in April 2014) but his skillset is more that of a back-end starter than that of a front-liner. Colby Lewis, and Chi Chi Gonzalez each struggled to varying degrees last year and, while I think they’ll play better come April, they don’t really have a ton of upside. Gonzalez had a 0.90 ERA in his first 30 innings and a 5.61 ERA in the subsequent 43.1 – he also walked 20 and K-ed 21 during that span.
17. New York Yankees – Pineda could break out and Tanaka is good but Severino isn’t as good as we think he is and CC Sabathia has seen better days
Michael Pineda will have a better year than Masahiro Tanaka. There I said it. The 6’7 265 monster that is Pineda had moments of brilliance and extended periods of shittiness last year but his age 27 season will be when it all comes together for the Dominican and he becomes a real #1. Tanaka has excellent stuff but his durability has to be a real concern (290 career IP in 2 years) and he was worse last year than in his rookie season. Nate Eovaldi throws 96-97 MPH as a starter but just can not strike batters out – he has the raw velocity to be an ace but so many weaknesses that he’ll probably never be anything more than a 4th starter. A lot of Yankees fans won’t want to hear this but Luis Severino got pretty lucky with his results last year and it’ll be interesting to see how he can handle more than 150 innings in a season – ultimately a 3.50-3.60 ERA is more likely than a 3.00 ERA for the 22 year old (on opening day). CC Sabathia probably won’t be good with age, personal issues, and declining velocity all working against him.
Marcus Stroman
16. Toronto Blue Jays – I love this rotation more than I should and it could be one of the best in alll of baseball but there is plenty of risk here too
The Blue Jays’ rotation has obviously digressed with the loss of David Price but there’s still some talent; this is one of the higher risk/reward starting 5s in the majors and I wouldn’t be too surprised if Toronto’s starters were top 10 or bottom 5 at the end of the year. Marcus Stroman is 5 foot 8 inches, fully healthy, and electric. Stroman might be my top pick for starters who will really step up and become true #1s this year. Marco Estrada came out of nowhere to put together a great year but his ERA outperformed his FIP, xFIP, and SiERA and he’s always been homer-prone. J.A. Happ has seemingly always sucked but, in his final 10 starts, he put together a 1.37 ERA and K-ed 9.6/9. Happ might fade into mediocrity in 2016 but its also possible that this 2nd half surge is a sign of things to come. R.A. Dickey is likely just a back-end knuckler at this point but we’ve all seen what he is capable of. Finally, Aaron Sanchez was a top pitching prospect a few years back and he’ll have the opportunity to prove he can start in the MLB after losing a spot in the rotation last May. I’d like to rank this team a lot higher and brag about being right about them in the offseason but this group has a lot of risk too.
15. Detroit Tigers – Many Tigers starters (Verlander, Sanchez, and Zimmermann) have been in net downward trends these past few years; a lot depends on whether that continues in ’16 and whether Daniel Norris can step up
Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez were not good at the start of last year. Sanchez never came around and actually got worse as the season progressed but Verlander held batters to a .259 OBP and kept his ERA at 2.80 in 103 2nd-half innings. Jordan Zimmermann is a huge improvement on any rotation and I was sad to see him leave the Nationals. While I don’t think his contract will be worth it, Zimm is an extremely capable and talented asset to any rotation. Daniel Norris, a prospect acquired from the mid-season David Price trade, has shown flashes of brilliance but needs to bring it all together. In 2 of Norris’ last three starts, he went a combined 10 IP and allowed just one hit. Mike Pelfrey, meanwhile, just isn’t good and if he can keep his ERA close to the 4.26 he had last year, every Detroit fan will be happy. Michael Fulmer, part of the Yoenis Cespedes trade, could replace Pelfrey by June.
14. Seattle Mariners – Hernandez might’ve lost part of his dominance but the rest of the M’s rotation has unheralded potential a d former super-prospect Taijuan Walker could jump into stardom
Taijuan Walker
Every single season, Felix Hernandez is one of the most dominant pitchers but there is no denying he took a step back in 2015. The 29 year old’s 3.53 ERA is his highest since 2007, he walked a higher rate of batters than he had in any year since 2009, and he allowed more than 1 homer per 9 innings for the first time since 2006 and his less-effective fastball might be the main culprit. King Felix is still a great pitcher, he just might not be as good as we think he is anymore. Hisashi Iwakuma is a virtual lock for a mid-low 3s ERA, Wade Miley (acquired from the Red Sox this offseason) will benefit from a move to Safeco and should be a capable back-end option. James Paxton and his 3.16 ERA in 30 MLB starts have flown under the radar and while that might be because of his career 3.6bb/9, he should start getting more respect than he does. Taijuan Walker’s 4.56 ERA for the season looks really ugly but, if you get rid of his first 9 outings, a 3.62 ERA, 8.4 k/9, and just 1.2 walks per 9 looks a hell of a lot better. Walker and his freak-ish athleticism is somebody who could really turn some heads in April.
13. Pittsburgh Pirates – Cole and Liriano are a great 1-2 punch but it goes downhill quickly after that; prospect Tyler Glasnow is amazing
25 year old Gerrit Cole exploded in a very good way last year and it looks like he will be a top 10 pitcher for years to come. Cole’s 2.60 ERA is backed by strong peripherals like low walk rates and great stuff. The only thing that could potentially hold Cole back is his health but he did toss 208 IP so that is a very minor concern. Darren Rovell would applaud lefty Francisco Liriano for establishing his own brand – when you hear Liriano’s name, you instantly think strike-outs, more strike-outs, and walks. And Liriano should be more of the same this year. Jeff Locke (famous for an unfounded gambling scandal), Jon Niese (acquired from the NY Mets), and FA signing Ryan Vogelsong are all 5th starter types. Tyler Glasnow, the 6th best prospect in all of baseball, could make the team’s rotation by June and he is a motherfucking monster. Glasnow is 6’7 and has a career 2.07 ERA with 11.8 k/9 in the minors – he is filthy.
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Be on the lookout for part 4 tomorrow and let me know what you think on twitter Follow @SAlaskaBarstool