Ranking MLB Rotations, Part 5: The Great
Check out part 1 (teams 30-25 here), part 2 (teams 24-19 here), part 3 (teams 18-13 here), and part 4 (teams 12-7 here) and let me know what you think on twitter. Follow @SAlaskaBarstool
6. Arizona Diamondbacks – Greinke and Shelby Miller headline a vastly improved rotation. Patrick Corbin is very capable, Robbie Ray is underrated, and Rubby De la Rosa isn’t bad; there are some talented pitching prospects too
The D-Backs rotation is a far cry away from the one that saw Josh Collmenter starting on Opening Day last year. Zack Greinke, on the heels of an incredible 1.66 ERA season, will probably add 5-6 wins to the team’s record but the D-Backs weren’t done there. Shelby Miller cost the team a pretty penny but he is instantly one of the better #2 starters in all of baseball. Patrick Corbin is a skilled #3 starter but he doesn’t have much more upside than mid-3s ERA. Robbie Ray, a 24 year old lefty can get outs and strikeouts but the walk rate might come to bite him when opposing batters get more familiar with him. Finally, Rubby De la Rosa can throw hard but might be better off in a ‘pen role – the DBacks have replacement options in the minors and 23 year old Braden Shipley and Archie Bradley, the former top prospect who struggled in the majors after getting hit in the head last season, come to mind. When I first drew up these rankings, I put the DBacks right around 13 or 14 but upon reexamination, I really don’t see any justification for the starting 5 ranking anywhere beyond the top 10.
5. Cleveland Indians – The Indians rotation has a lot of strike-out power. The top 3 are very strong but there are some Qs regarding how the back-end will perform
Danny Salazar
9 wins, 16 losses, and a 3.49 ERA might not be indicative of dominance for former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and, while he certainly was not dominant, his ‘bad’ stats really aren’t that bad and he should be primed for a huge bounceback year. Kluber can strike out around 10 batters per 9 and he can power through all nine innings with relative ease. His ERA-supplement stats (like FIP, xFIP, and SiERA) all show that he should’ve been better than he was and I see no reason why he can’t string together ace stats this year. Strike-out stud Carlos Carrasco also dealt with an inflated ERA but his 2.99 mark after the break is a sign of things to come. 26 year old Danny Salazar is the 3rd Indians starter who averages more than a K per inning and, while it is more likely he remains a skilled #3 starter, I wouldn’t be shocked if Salazar pitches himself into the All Star game. Trevor Bauer loves flying his drone more than I love anything in my life and can turn into a real #2 starter if he can limit his walks. Rookie Cody Anderson pitched well in 15 outings for the Indians in ’15 but his 4.3k/9 don’t make me feel confident about any future success for the 25 year old.
4. Washington Nationals – Scherzer and Strasburg are among the best 1-2 punches in the game. Gio and Roark each can be great and Joe Ross should continue to improve
Personal fandom aside, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are as good a 1-2 as there is in baseball (that’s right, I think they rank ahead of the Dbacks duo above). Max Scherzer struggled in August (6.43 ERA) and he is not without his (minor) issues but his 1st half as a National was historic, his 2 no hitters were mind-bottling even if I may have been waiting tables at my town’s local casual dining chain during his 2nd feat of excellence, and I love him. Stephen Strasburg was not himself early last year but, from his first start in June until the end of the season, Strasburg was Cy Young quality: 1.76 ERA with exceptional FIP, xFIP, and SiERA, more than 12 k/9IP, and a low walk rate. Strasburg is more of a 2nd ace than an actual #2. Gio Gonzalez and his 3.03 ERA from 6/21 on is no doubt one of the better 3rd pitchers and might be seen kind of like a Francisco Liriano-lite in terms of his stuff and his handedness. Joe Ross isn’t a finished product yet but once he gets there … watch out! He was absolutely electric at points last year and has clear potential to develop into a top-of-the-rotation arm. Tanner Roark had a 2.85 ERA in 198.2 innings when he started full time in ’14. Roark is the 5th starter. Enough said.
3. St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals always seem to get it done and they’ve got a healthy Adam Wainwright now too. Wacha, Garcia, and Leake are always pretty good and Martinez has true break-out (again) potential
Carlos Martinez
A lot will depend on Adam Wainwright’s return from injury but it seems as though whoever the Cardinals throw out there does well. Wainwright did pitch well in 25 innings prior to his injury and wasn’t too bad in a couple outings of relief towards the end of the year. Wainwright, 34, is getting up there in age but his velocity has held relatively strong and, while his K rate is declining, he should remain a very capable #1 starter. Jaime Garcia broke out in a big way last year and had a 2.43 ERA in an injury-shortened season. The stuff isn’t there for Garcia to regularly contend for ERA titles and if I were to set an over/under on his 2016 ERA it might be 3.25, Garcia should remain a talented option. Michael Wacha had another great year in his 3rd year as a pro until he broke down in September (7.88 ERA). Mike Leake might be a pretty boring pitcher (gets results but doesn’t get strikeouts) but he should be worth about 2 wins to the Cardinals over the course of the season. Carlos Martinez has got to be the best #5 starter in the game and he should only get better as he ages and gets more experience. The 24 year old had a 2.52 ERA in the first half and, although he got a bit worse after the ASB, his electric stuff and mid-90s velocity gives him the 2nd highest potential among starters on St. Louis’ stacked staff. Lance Lynn is probably out for the year.
2. Chicago Cubs – Cy Young winner Arrieta heads this rotation while Lester is a great #2 and Lackey, Hendricks, and Hammel all bottom out this skilled rotation
Jake Arrieta is amazing – I don’t really have anything to say aside from the fact that he is super fucking good and that if he isn’t the best pitcher in baseball, then he is the 2nd best. Jon Lester struggled early in his transition to the National League and he had some ugly months sprinkled in with some exceptional stretches but the lefty is a perfect 2nd option behind the reigning NL Cy Young winner. Free Agent acquisition John Lackey pitched what may have been the best season of his career (2.77 ERA and 7.2 k/9) and that includes his 2007 campaign where he was a Cy Young award finalist – Lackey is a great sign and is the lesser part of Chicago’s diabolical assassination of the Cardinals. Dartmouth Alum Kyle Hendricks had a great ERA but no strike outs in his rookie season then found the swing-and-miss stuff but watched his ERA slip last year; 2016 could be the year that the 26 year old puts it all together. Any 5th starter who can K more than a batter an inning and has an acceptable ERA is A-OK in my book (and Jason Hammel fills in both of those boxes). For depth, Adam Warren is a quality swing-man and Travis Wood isn’t awful 100% of the time.
1. New York Mets – The Mets are number 1 and it isn’t extremely close. The top 3 consists of 3 #1 type starts while 4, 5, and 6 all belong in the middle of a rotation too
I think everyone (aside from people who thought that I would blindly put the Nationals at #1) knew that the Mets rotation would rank at the very top. There isn’t much that I can say that hasn’t already been said about these guys. Matt Harvey is an additional year removed from his injury and while his attitude can bother some, he can still really pitch. Jake DeGrom was no doubt even better than Matt Harvey last year and his 2.52 ERA (and ERA alternative stats like FIP, xFIP, and SiERA) was among the best in the league – throw in a great k rate and fewer than 2 walks per 9 and you’ve got yourself an ace. Noah Syndergaard and his high 90s fastball, 6’6 frame, and low 3s ERA appears to be very legit and lefty Stephen Matz should be a very capable mid-rotation starter if he can stay off of the disabled list. Zack Wheeler missed all of 2015 and was almost traded away from the team and Wheeler may require some adjustment time (and needs to work on limiting the walks), any team would be ecstatic to have him in their rotation. Bartolo Colon is fat, entertaining, and a very good 6th option.
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