Trilly Grades Your Prebuild: Utah Jazz
Welcome back,
You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there are only nineteen: Pacers, Spurs, Pistons, Clippers, Heat, Kings, Lakers, Cavs, Wizards, Pelicans, Suns, Wolves, Mavs, Hawks, Magic,
Hornets, Knicks, Bulls, and Grizzlies.
I’ll take a look at three things they did well, three things they failed at and three things they could do this summer to improve. I’ll issue one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
Utah Jazz (50-32, 5th place Western Conference)
Good Things
1. Rudy Gobert
I was going to say defensive identity, but he’s their defensive identity so let’s just celebrate Rudy. The Jazz finished 2nd in defensive rating (their third straight year in the top-3) and they have Gobert to thank for it. He led the league in TS% and averaged a career-high 16 PPG and 13 RPG. He led the league in screen assists per game (6) and screen assists points created per game (nearly 14). His usage and assist rates keep going up, his turnover rate keeps going down.
There’s been a lot made of Gobert’s effectiveness in the postseason and I think it’s overblown. Each of the last two seasons, he’s had to face “MVP” James Harden and “36 PPG a night but probably won’t win MVP” James Harden. Rudy has his limitations in certain series, there’s no doubt about it, but the Jazz held the Rockets under 105 points three times in five games….and they still got rolled. They have bigger issues than the All-NBA DPOY guy that gets better offensively every season.
2. Great cap situation
Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and Joe Ingles are signed for two more years. Kyle Korver, Jae Crowder, and Royce O’Neale are signed for one more. Derrick Favors and Ricky Rubio can hit UFA this summer but the Jazz have more than enough cap space to re-sign them if they’d like. Their situation allows them to trade for a bigger contract (more on this later) and still retain their own guys, which will be vital for a team that isn’t getting any elite talent through free agency.
3. Donovan Mitchell
Smh. I don’t want to compliment any former Cardinals any more than you do so let’s make this brief. Mitchell’s counting numbers from year two (24/4/4 on 43/36/81 shooting) didn’t look all that different from his year one numbers (21/4/4 on 44/34/81) but they don’t tell the full story of his improvement. From January 1st to the end of the regular season, he averaged 27/5/5 on 45/41/82 shooting.
Mitchell’s FTr and usage rates increased, as did his assist%. His turnovers went down despite more usage, and he’s fine as a defender (defensive Real Plus-Minus has him between Josh Richardson and Jaylen Brown). He can guard multiple positions and most importantly, he won’t get picked on defensively in the postseason. He could stand to take more threes/free throws and fewer midrange shots but who couldn’t? He just needs to make more of the midrange shots if he’s going to keep them in his repertoire, the way Kyrie Irving and D’Angelo Russell have. He also needs someone on his team that can create his own shot….a shot that the defense fears might actually go in. I think his game has another level to it when he has more shot creators around him.
Bad Things
1. Lack of shot creators
It’s kind of a problem. Mitchell is probably the only guy that can consistently create a shot for himself and others. Rubio and Ingles can create for others but aren’t really threats to create for themselves. Gobert, Crowder, Favors, and Korver all need someone to get them open looks. Maybe Dante Exum and Grayson Allen get there one day but the Jazz need help now. As the Rockets showed, it’s way too easy to defend an offense without multiple creators.
2. Quin Snyder scares me
Outstanding coach. Scares the fuck out of me. Both of these things can be true.
This plays some into the lack of shot creators thing but Utah turns the ball over entirely too much, especially for a middling offense (15th in offensive rating, 13th in pace). Rubio, Ingles and O’Neale all finished in the top 20 for turnover percentage (Utah is the only team with three guys in the top 20). As a team, the Jazz finished 27th in TO%, right behind the Lakers/Heat and right ahead of the Suns/Hawks. Four lottery teams and the 50 win Jazz. Not the kind of company you want to keep. Imagine how much better that defense would be if the offense wasn’t handing the ball over all willy nilly.
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Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. Great summer to make a splash
The expiring contracts of Favors, Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, and Ekpe Udoh add up to about $40 million dollars. They could bring them all back at lower numbers and try to add another small piece around them. Or they could grow the fuck up and make an actual splash this summer.
They have so much cap space and this is a great free agent class. And if they can’t sign anybody with their cap space, they’re in a good position to take on a salary from another team looking to clear space. Mike Conley is very available. Danilo Galinari could be had if the Clippers need to open up another max spot in a hurry. Chris Paul and Kevin Love are on teams dying to get under the luxury tax and might be attainable for minimal return. If the Nets get word they’re signing two stars, they’d either have to let D’Angelo Russell walk in RFA or renounce him entirely which would let him hit UFA. Each one of those guys would help Utah tremendously, and they’d be happy to trade for salaries they could never sign outright.
2. Might be time to cut bait on Dante Exum
That’s not to say he can’t or won’t be a solid NBA player. He’s 23, still has the tools to be a very good defender and I don’t think his shot is BROKEN broken (career 77% FT shooter). But he can’t stay healthy, he’s no longer on a rookie deal and the West is wide open at the moment. He missed all of 2015 with a torn ACL, missed 68 games in 2017 with a separated shoulder and a torn MCL had him on the shelf for 40 games this past season. It’s a shame because I do think there’s a quality NBA player in there somewhere but I’m not sure how long the Jazz are going to wait to find out. I wouldn’t give him away but if they add a big salary next season, I’m not sure how they keep paying $10 million to a backup PG that can’t shoot or stay on the court.
3. Gobert supermax
Due to making All-NBA this season and winning DPOY last season (and maybe this season too), Gobert is eligible to sign a supermax extension next summer:
$247.3 million dollars. That’s a $49 million per season AVERAGE and would have Gobert making $60.8 million dollars in 2027 when he’s 33 years old.
First, let me address the elephant in the room: Goddamn! Second, the supermax doesn’t work and Utah is about to find out exactly how much it doesn’t work. Who knows what the salary cap will be by then so it may not be an issue cap wise, but that’s a steep price for anyone, nonetheless a center in #ThisNBA. They’ll also presumably be paying Mitchell a max extension by that time, which will kick in the same year Gobert’s theoretical supermax does. If they know those deals are coming down the pipeline, they probably aren’t trading for the remaining three years on Paul’s deal or the four left on Love’s deal. The effects are several years away, but they have to decide next summer and in John Wall’s case, we’ve seen what can happen after the deal is signed but before it even kicks in. They’ll have a tough decision to make. But until then…
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Rebuild status: Oh hell yea