The Details In The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Extension Is Even More Proof That MLB Is Headed Towards A Lockout

Mark Blinch. Getty Images.

SOURCE - The big off-field news this week in Major League Baseball was the 14-year, $500 million extension Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has signed with the Blue Jays. The deal was officially announced by the Jays, meaning every hurdle has been cleared and Vlad Jr. is locked up for, presumably, the rest of his career. 

Details on Guerrero's contract came out and the jaw-dropping portion is that it includes a $325 million signing bonus, which is a whopping 65% of the entire value of the contract, according to Sportsnet. There's no deferred money, no opt-out clauses and a full no-trade clause. Of that bonus, $20 million is paid this season and then the rest of the bonus is spread from 2026-39. 

The other wrinkle is that player salaries are not paid during any work stoppage, such as the COVID shutdown in 2020 and if there are future labor disputes (a strike or lockout) that eliminate games. Salaries are paid based on the number of games played. The bonus, on the other hand, will be paid out regardless. Guerrero is guaranteed that money.

Good for Vladdy, Jr. It's a great thing for baseball when teams can keep their homegrown stars. Don't get me wrong. This is a wild overpay for a guy that I think has a lower ceiling than a lot of stars. I also don't think he'll age particularly well. That contract is going to look rough when he's 36 or 38 years old

But the real takeaway from this deal for me is that every baseball fan might be in big, big trouble. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement for Major League Baseball ends after the 2026 season. Any time you hear either side talk about that deadline, it sounds like a work stoppage isn't just possible, it sounds inevitable.

Jonathan Daniel. Getty Images.

If you're 40 or older, you remember the last baseball work stoppage and how awful it was. The players went on strike in August of 1994 and it didn't end until April of 1995. It was crushing for any baseball fan. The entire 1994 post-season got wiped away (as well as 49 regular season games for each team) and even the 1995 season started 18 games late. The Montreal Expos never recovered and moved a decade later.

The reason I bring that up that nightmare situation from 1994 is that 30 years later, the players and owners are fighting about the same thing again: the salary cap.

While the NBA,NHL and NFL all have a salary cap, this has long been a non-negotiable topic for the MLBPA. They've been saying for decades that they will never entertain the topic. The Players Association loves to use the fact that they don't have a cap to prove that they have the strongest union not just in sports, but in the entire country.

Matt King. Getty Images.

Since 1995, it seems like the owners have accepted this as fact. They moved on and negotiated things like the luxury tax and revenue sharing. But 1994 was a long time ago. Most of those owners have sold their teams or died since then. Many of these current owners don't have the scars from that strike. Now they want to lock out the players until they get what they want.

Advertisement

The Vladdy Jr. bonus was a cruel splash of cold water in the face of any baseball fan paying attention. That's not saying Vladdy did anything wrong at all. I believe we'll see a few contracts this off-season structured the same way. If you're Zac Gallen, Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez and you have multiple bidders this winter, why wouldn't you try to ensure you'll get paid during a lockout?

The worst part of all of this is it's so unnecessary. Do they have to come up with a better system to ensure small market teams spend money instead of putting that revenue sharing back in their pocket? Absolutely. If they think the large spenders like the Mets and Dodgers are spending too much money, make the luxury tax penalties stronger. I'm sure the players union would be much more willing to having that conversation as opposed to a salary cap.

The owners will try to trick the public narrative by saying they are willing to implement a salary floor if they are adding a salary cap. What they won't mention is that teams like the Marlins and Guardians could have been spending money all along and make wild profits as it is. Why do they need a rule to spend money that fans give them to make the team better? Why should we trust such greedy people?

Everyone is gearing up for a war. We now see the players protecting themselves for what might be a long battle. I've seen this conflict between billionaires and millionaires before. You know who gets fucked the most? 

Us.